Will the July 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be 4.2% or lower?
Will the July 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be 4.2% or lower?
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This market is resolved yes. Positions can no longer be opened or closed.
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Wilson lower bounds at 95% confidence, 180-day half-life, over 1 rated markets. Shown separately and never combined.
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Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if the unemployment rate in the first BLS Employment Situation release for July 2026 is 4.2% or lower. Resolves NO if it is above 4.2%. Use the initially published seasonally adjusted headline unemployment rate; later corrections and revisions do not count. If publication is delayed, the market remains unresolved until BLS publishes the applicable release.