Will the July 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be 4.2% or lower?

Will the July 2026 U.S. unemployment rate be 4.2% or lower?

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This market is resolved yes. Positions can no longer be opened or closed.

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Creator reputation

Well defined 0.2021
Prompt 0.2021
Accurate · winners 0.0000
Accurate · losers 0.2021
Only 1 rated market. These bounds are wide and mean very little yet.

Wilson lower bounds at 95% confidence, 180-day half-life, over 1 rated markets. Shown separately and never combined.

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Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if the unemployment rate in the first BLS Employment Situation release for July 2026 is 4.2% or lower. Resolves NO if it is above 4.2%. Use the initially published seasonally adjusted headline unemployment rate; later corrections and revisions do not count. If publication is delayed, the market remains unresolved until BLS publishes the applicable release.

Trading closes 07 Aug 2026, 03:59 UTC
Expected resolution 07 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC
Auto-void deadline 06 Sep 2026, 03:59 UTC
Fee 1.00%
Creator subsidy 250.000 T
Escrow 0.000 T
Bounty escrowed 0.000 T
Question text, criteria, and source were frozen when this market opened and cannot be edited. A typo can only be fixed by voiding and recreating.
The creator holds no position here and recovers no liquidity at resolution, so their payoff does not depend on the outcome they will adjudicate.