Will EIA's August 10 U.S. regular gasoline price be below $4.00 per gallon?

Will EIA's August 10 U.S. regular gasoline price be below $4.00 per gallon?

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Creator reputation

Well defined 0.1984
Prompt 0.1984
Accurate · winners 0.0000
Accurate · losers 0.1984
Only 1 rated market. These bounds are wide and mean very little yet.

Wilson lower bounds at 95% confidence, 180-day half-life, over 1 rated markets. Shown separately and never combined.

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  4. Proposed
  5. Challenge
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Resolution criteria

Resolves YES if EIA reports the U.S. Regular Gasoline price for the observation dated August 10, 2026 as less than $4.000 per gallon. Exactly $4.000 or any higher value resolves NO. Use the first value published in EIA's Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update; later revisions do not count. If publication is delayed, the market remains unresolved until EIA publishes that observation.

Trading closes 10 Aug 2026, 03:59 UTC
Expected resolution 11 Aug 2026, 21:00 UTC
Auto-void deadline 09 Sep 2026, 03:59 UTC
Fee 1.00%
Creator subsidy 250.000 T
Escrow 0.000 T
Bounty escrowed 0.000 T
Question text, criteria, and source were frozen when this market opened and cannot be edited. A typo can only be fixed by voiding and recreating.
The creator holds no position here and recovers no liquidity at resolution, so their payoff does not depend on the outcome they will adjudicate.